Over the past year, hundreds of community banks are not closing down, that is sold to big banks. But the next few years, the United States number more than 7,700 small banks at home, and more will become history, whether intentional or unintentional, it government and regulatory decision-making are those classified as large banks absolutely reliable results.
It sounds sad, but the regulatory authorities, shareholders and even consumers, this may not a big tragedy. Of course, this does not mean we will like to see community banks disappeared. Decision-making level should be thought of course, that speed up the small independent disappearance of the norms of financial institutions, is causing a negative net effect.
In some ways, the recent substantial increase in the number of banks close family - possibly up to 300 this year - only to return to more financial institutions to expand the scale of long-term trend, over the past 10 years, a great period in the economy, this trend The slow down. In the early 1990s, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has 16,074 financial institutions supervision at home .10 years, this figure dropped to 10,222 - an average of one year disappearance of 585 banks.
But in the next 10 years, the rate of decline slowed. To the end of 2007, FDIC oversight bodies Number of about 240 a year on average decrease was mainly due to the merger. The rate of decline accelerated from 2008 onwards, mainly due to bank failures, 157 this year, while only 3 in 2007.
Beneficiaries of this trend is that the largest bank group in the early .1990, the assets of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars of the 59 banks control 31.8% of U.S. financial assets. To this day, over billions of dollars of assets of banks increased by nearly doubled to 109, the proportion of assets held more soar to 78.6%.
This situation will continue. First of all, FDIC's problem list had 860 banks - many are yet to relief funds to pay 600 banks list. Not all questions will be taken over banks, but many banks will eventually is the largest bank in the capital than the rich eating. But even a good physical community banks, the future looks bad.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Permanent public business boost the U.S. economy
Two years after the crisis, Bernanke against Friedman, nearly two years, can its claims policy has not had much success. Bernanke is now the focus of attention shifted to the money supply, and therefore the U.S. economy showing growth.
Recently, the U.S. economic data began to improve. In addition to the level of inflation remained at low levels, consumer confidence, manufacturing sector, services, auto sales, weekly jobless numbers and have improved the performance of the real estate industry. Although the unemployment rate still remained at 10% level, but some of the unemployment is due to the population of the unemployed have tried to re-enter the labor market caused. The U.S. economy is now creating more employment opportunities.
These achievements are positive the Federal Reserve open market operations accelerate the permanent stage. Permanent public service in the past the Fed's policy is different from its main purpose is to expand the money supply, where the number of the money supply is cash, demand deposits and time deposits plus total. Bonds purchased with the previous project, the permanent open market operations is not for the banking system, but to the entire system, "water" liquidity, by increasing the money supply for the demand for goods and services.
Recently, the U.S. economic data began to improve. In addition to the level of inflation remained at low levels, consumer confidence, manufacturing sector, services, auto sales, weekly jobless numbers and have improved the performance of the real estate industry. Although the unemployment rate still remained at 10% level, but some of the unemployment is due to the population of the unemployed have tried to re-enter the labor market caused. The U.S. economy is now creating more employment opportunities.
These achievements are positive the Federal Reserve open market operations accelerate the permanent stage. Permanent public service in the past the Fed's policy is different from its main purpose is to expand the money supply, where the number of the money supply is cash, demand deposits and time deposits plus total. Bonds purchased with the previous project, the permanent open market operations is not for the banking system, but to the entire system, "water" liquidity, by increasing the money supply for the demand for goods and services.
AXiM - Phelps: American economic growth will exceed Europe next year
First, the EU faces an uncertain economic recovery, prospects for U.S. growth and high unemployment also is not optimistic. However, the latter half of 2010, U.S. economic growth than Europe. Currently, the U.S. tax cuts next two years has passed, I believe the U.S. will be more advantage.
Second, central banks around the world in 2010 generally over-loose monetary policy adopted in 2011 it will continue to release large amounts of liquidity.
We expect global GDP growth in major developed countries is lower than average, and below the 2010 level. U.S. fiscal stimulus plan to boost U.S. growth, but the euro zone, Japan and the UK level of growth will decline compared with 2010.
Steady growth in emerging market countries. For inflation, emerging market economies will be proper control of policy makers the economic growth. Major emerging market countries will strengthen the management of inflation, but not over-tighten the implementation of the policy.
After inflation, the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank increased interest rates for the first time, it is estimated the first quarter of 2012, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time estimated in the third quarter of 2011. Emerging market central banks will carefully slight increase in official interest rates.
Second, central banks around the world in 2010 generally over-loose monetary policy adopted in 2011 it will continue to release large amounts of liquidity.
We expect global GDP growth in major developed countries is lower than average, and below the 2010 level. U.S. fiscal stimulus plan to boost U.S. growth, but the euro zone, Japan and the UK level of growth will decline compared with 2010.
Steady growth in emerging market countries. For inflation, emerging market economies will be proper control of policy makers the economic growth. Major emerging market countries will strengthen the management of inflation, but not over-tighten the implementation of the policy.
After inflation, the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank increased interest rates for the first time, it is estimated the first quarter of 2012, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time estimated in the third quarter of 2011. Emerging market central banks will carefully slight increase in official interest rates.
The administration retracted 60% financial aid money
U.S. Treasury Department said on Wednesday, the day of the financial crisis by funding from the 6 largest banks to recover 2.66 billion in aid. So far, the U.S. government has recovered $ 234,000,000,000 bailout funds, accounting for 60% of the total relief funds.
The end of 2008, in order to help those stranded in the business during the financial crisis, the U.S. government has launched a 7,000 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the actual cost of 389 billion U.S. dollars. TARP assistance by companies including Citigroup, American International Group (AIG), GM and other large companies. U.S. Treasury Department said on Wednesday that six recipients banks are regional banks, they are not only shown with the return of relief funds, but also paid $ 13,700,000 in dividends. U.S. Treasury Department said, suggesting that these banks have come out from the predicament, powerful enough to start their own decisions.
Quasi-central bank deposit rate of brewing different dynamic adjustment of electricity prices, said NDRC price of coal power over planning in Northeast Asia is expected confrontation between the DPRK and the ROK media that China decompression first aircraft carrier to be launched next year, the top ten most eat dirty food inventory (Photos ) Ding Zhijie: RMB's a bold prediction for next year in October this year, the U.S. Treasury Department has published the report, although the policy has been strongly criticized the TARP, a lot of people think the government should not waste taxpayer money to help the financially troubled company, but the fact The move proved only cost taxpayers 25 billion U.S. dollars of funds, the cost much lower than expected.
The end of 2008, in order to help those stranded in the business during the financial crisis, the U.S. government has launched a 7,000 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the actual cost of 389 billion U.S. dollars. TARP assistance by companies including Citigroup, American International Group (AIG), GM and other large companies. U.S. Treasury Department said on Wednesday that six recipients banks are regional banks, they are not only shown with the return of relief funds, but also paid $ 13,700,000 in dividends. U.S. Treasury Department said, suggesting that these banks have come out from the predicament, powerful enough to start their own decisions.
Quasi-central bank deposit rate of brewing different dynamic adjustment of electricity prices, said NDRC price of coal power over planning in Northeast Asia is expected confrontation between the DPRK and the ROK media that China decompression first aircraft carrier to be launched next year, the top ten most eat dirty food inventory (Photos ) Ding Zhijie: RMB's a bold prediction for next year in October this year, the U.S. Treasury Department has published the report, although the policy has been strongly criticized the TARP, a lot of people think the government should not waste taxpayer money to help the financially troubled company, but the fact The move proved only cost taxpayers 25 billion U.S. dollars of funds, the cost much lower than expected.
Financial innovation filled with progress and setback
May indicate that the financial crisis, financial and even will bring its own risks. One mechanism may be due to the invention of the mortgage. However, no mortgage, whether the situation is better? On this simple question, I think, first of all must see, there are some people benefit from these loans. For individual homeowners, it provides social benefits. Development is the intention of the mortgage market, individual homeowners will be diluted to a wider range of risk and the whole world.
If the calculation of the U.S. market, the scale of bad mortgage loans, you will find it is not a very large number, so if a simple fall with the loss of housing prices, mortgage crisis measure, you will find that it will not cause the world So a big impact. The real problem lies in the system. Banking is fragile, the insurance company AIG is fragile. We did not estimate the fragility of the financial institutions. So, not a problem of financial instruments, institutional structure is the problem.
Now, the market often criticized hedge funds and the role of speculators, as if they are wicked, greedy they simply selfish. But my research shows that they are in the health of the market forces. Hedge funds are always aimed at the lack of efficient capital markets where, in order to obtain a return. Deviations such as stock valuations, they will buy; public access to information and investor information is inconsistent, investors value the company more than the knowledge of the public, they will also take to pay off; investor trading behavior of non-rational , herding lead to market prevailing pessimism, the hedge funds also have the opportunity to make money. In addition, hedge funds can also use the regulatory restrictions make money, and so on.
If the calculation of the U.S. market, the scale of bad mortgage loans, you will find it is not a very large number, so if a simple fall with the loss of housing prices, mortgage crisis measure, you will find that it will not cause the world So a big impact. The real problem lies in the system. Banking is fragile, the insurance company AIG is fragile. We did not estimate the fragility of the financial institutions. So, not a problem of financial instruments, institutional structure is the problem.
Now, the market often criticized hedge funds and the role of speculators, as if they are wicked, greedy they simply selfish. But my research shows that they are in the health of the market forces. Hedge funds are always aimed at the lack of efficient capital markets where, in order to obtain a return. Deviations such as stock valuations, they will buy; public access to information and investor information is inconsistent, investors value the company more than the knowledge of the public, they will also take to pay off; investor trading behavior of non-rational , herding lead to market prevailing pessimism, the hedge funds also have the opportunity to make money. In addition, hedge funds can also use the regulatory restrictions make money, and so on.
Commercial Banks financial innovation and supervision
Subprime mortgage crisis, many of 8% capital adequacy ratio to meet the regulatory requirements of the bank failure, the effectiveness of capital regulation questioned, but also further strengthen the international regulatory system for the determination of regulatory capital. The newly adopted "Basel III" is considered for decades the largest area of banking supervision reforms, which from various indicators of capital adequacy ratio and capital regulatory system has been improved and revised, the revised definitions include strengthening capital to improve the capital quality, consistency and transparency, strengthen the capital framework for risk coverage capabilities.
Economic and financial development of the new situation requires commercial banks to increase the intensity of financial innovation, financial innovation is the driving force commercial banks. First of all, the new requirements of capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks to increase the pressure on equity financing. In summing up the lessons of the financial crisis, the "Basel III" greatly improved the capital adequacy requirements: early 2015, worldwide capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks from the current level of 4% to 6%; from ordinary shares constitute the core of a capital adequacy ratio, from the current 2% to 4.5%. On this basis, the commercial banks to achieve security operations, its capital adequacy ratio must reach 12% -13%. This increases the pressure on commercial banks, equity financing.
Economic and financial development of the new situation requires commercial banks to increase the intensity of financial innovation, financial innovation is the driving force commercial banks. First of all, the new requirements of capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks to increase the pressure on equity financing. In summing up the lessons of the financial crisis, the "Basel III" greatly improved the capital adequacy requirements: early 2015, worldwide capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks from the current level of 4% to 6%; from ordinary shares constitute the core of a capital adequacy ratio, from the current 2% to 4.5%. On this basis, the commercial banks to achieve security operations, its capital adequacy ratio must reach 12% -13%. This increases the pressure on commercial banks, equity financing.
Financial innovation negative consequences will continue to affect the United States
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) President Jeffrey M. Lacker said on Tuesday that the negative consequences of financial innovation will continue to affect the U.S. economy.
Lacker said market participants in various ways through technological means the practice of risk diversification will continue to impact the U.S. economy.
Years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main layout of the new money is plotting to talk about the U.S. financial system, Lacker said the financial institutions "too big to not fail" the concept of financial reform that Dodd-Frank bill (Dodd Frank Act) are trying to solve these problems. He said the bill attempts to expand the scope of regulation to bank holding companies and other financial institutions. He also pointed out that the federal government bailout of the bill also proposed new restrictions.
Lacker is Tuesday night at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel (The Waldorf Astoria) made the remarks when attending the Alumni Association. He is the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (Federal Open Market Committee) non-voting member.
Lacker said market participants in various ways through technological means the practice of risk diversification will continue to impact the U.S. economy.
Years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main layout of the new money is plotting to talk about the U.S. financial system, Lacker said the financial institutions "too big to not fail" the concept of financial reform that Dodd-Frank bill (Dodd Frank Act) are trying to solve these problems. He said the bill attempts to expand the scope of regulation to bank holding companies and other financial institutions. He also pointed out that the federal government bailout of the bill also proposed new restrictions.
Lacker is Tuesday night at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel (The Waldorf Astoria) made the remarks when attending the Alumni Association. He is the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (Federal Open Market Committee) non-voting member.
Financial moral risk and its prevention
By the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the destruction of a huge international financial crisis. In this financial crisis, speculation that the core spirit of capitalism, because of greed, flooded and profoundly greedy capitalist nature of dialysis, to a large extent, this crisis is not a traditional economic crisis of overproduction, and is a financial innovation by the American system of moral hazard that led to the financial and moral crisis.
The so-called moral hazard, also known as moral hazard refers to people engaged in economic activities to maximize effectiveness while enhancing their own and make other people's actions are not conducive. This risk is often as a potential, hidden, sudden, destructive and control of the long-term and arduous, and so on. The real risk arising due to the transfer, the income obtained through the transfer of risk once the parties realize the inherent benefits and risks of externalization, it will maximize the pursuit of profit maximization.
Modern financial innovation continue to spread and transfer with moral hazard, but can not completely eliminate it permanently. As long as there exists a market economy, moral hazard is inevitable. The reality of information asymmetry can not be eliminated, based on the limited human rationality and opportunistic tendencies, once the principal - agent relationship was set up, speculation and greed became the norm in the inevitable risk of moral hazard also follow. The key is how we should be through a rigid control system design, or code of ethics to be flexible constraints, the speculation and greed set in the controllable range, and thus minimize the risk of moral hazard.
The so-called moral hazard, also known as moral hazard refers to people engaged in economic activities to maximize effectiveness while enhancing their own and make other people's actions are not conducive. This risk is often as a potential, hidden, sudden, destructive and control of the long-term and arduous, and so on. The real risk arising due to the transfer, the income obtained through the transfer of risk once the parties realize the inherent benefits and risks of externalization, it will maximize the pursuit of profit maximization.
Modern financial innovation continue to spread and transfer with moral hazard, but can not completely eliminate it permanently. As long as there exists a market economy, moral hazard is inevitable. The reality of information asymmetry can not be eliminated, based on the limited human rationality and opportunistic tendencies, once the principal - agent relationship was set up, speculation and greed became the norm in the inevitable risk of moral hazard also follow. The key is how we should be through a rigid control system design, or code of ethics to be flexible constraints, the speculation and greed set in the controllable range, and thus minimize the risk of moral hazard.
Differentiation leading electronic financial innovation
With economic globalization and the rapid development of Internet, e-finance more constituted an important part of the global economy, innovation is increasingly becoming the financial organization system and development model to improve the competitiveness of the financial industry, an important way. Broaden the traditional e-finance channel for financial services, IT technology and the Internet-based e-banking, securities, insurance, fund business and online banking, electronic payments and other electronic financial products have penetrated into every aspect of people's lives. The financial sector had an important impact, changing the banking services, marketing and management, but also affect financial sector competition.
Years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main layout of digital money is plotting a new market research online survey of 100 public areas for the improvement of e-finance needs of significantly different. 45.1% of respondents believe that e-banking needs to be more intelligent. For online payment tool, people pay more attention to their safety, 46.8% of people think that insurance companies require innovative online platform, 49% of people want to call the insurance to be more user-friendly customer service, securities trading platform you will need to improve quickness. All these improvement needs in the financial business areas of concern, which also contains a large number of business opportunities.
Years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main layout of digital money is plotting a new market research online survey of 100 public areas for the improvement of e-finance needs of significantly different. 45.1% of respondents believe that e-banking needs to be more intelligent. For online payment tool, people pay more attention to their safety, 46.8% of people think that insurance companies require innovative online platform, 49% of people want to call the insurance to be more user-friendly customer service, securities trading platform you will need to improve quickness. All these improvement needs in the financial business areas of concern, which also contains a large number of business opportunities.
American abuse global resources is the root of crisis
The sub-prime financial crisis, the world's governments, businesses and investors are talking about subprime loans, MBS, CDO, CDS and a series of nouns and analyze causes of the crisis. But if the innovation of financial disorder, investment banks and financial leverage too lax supervision as the main causes of the subprime crisis, but flow in the U.S. and global economic and financial problems of the surface of awareness.
More and more people seem to think that, mainly due to lax regulation, financial innovation in the products of these doping a lot of toxins (like milk mixed with melamine), and the investment banks underestimate the risks of uncontrolled zoom lever that led to the times credit crisis; response and prevention of financial crisis, first and foremost is to strengthen financial regulation, the spread in the current moment of crisis, must have positive righting a wrong.
In fact, the subprime financial crisis, the root causes of the current international monetary system, abuse of global resources under the United States, and U.S. monetary policy mistakes. If China has lax oversight of the subprime mortgage crisis as the main reason for strengthening crisis prevention and simple controls, so China and the U.S. financial competitiveness of the backward expansion of the gap will be taking a step forward in the international financial system and further reduced to provide resources and to the United States subsidiary financial system to bear the loss. Causes of the crisis
More and more people seem to think that, mainly due to lax regulation, financial innovation in the products of these doping a lot of toxins (like milk mixed with melamine), and the investment banks underestimate the risks of uncontrolled zoom lever that led to the times credit crisis; response and prevention of financial crisis, first and foremost is to strengthen financial regulation, the spread in the current moment of crisis, must have positive righting a wrong.
In fact, the subprime financial crisis, the root causes of the current international monetary system, abuse of global resources under the United States, and U.S. monetary policy mistakes. If China has lax oversight of the subprime mortgage crisis as the main reason for strengthening crisis prevention and simple controls, so China and the U.S. financial competitiveness of the backward expansion of the gap will be taking a step forward in the international financial system and further reduced to provide resources and to the United States subsidiary financial system to bear the loss. Causes of the crisis
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